The passenger car market space will slow down the growth of more than 30 million vehicles just the new normal

In the first half of 2017, the sales volume of passenger cars in the Chinese market was 11.253 million, an increase of 1.61% year-on-year. Although the passenger vehicle market is still growing, the growth rate has dropped by 7.62 percentage points compared to the same period of last year. Another question that accompanies the growth of the market is how large is the sales volume of China's passenger vehicle market? Both are the decision-making basis for auto companies to formulate production and sales plans.

The forecast results of the National Information Center show that by 2026, the sales of domestic demand in China's passenger vehicle market will reach 34 million. Using the United States as a reference standard, regional areas, economic levels, and per capita car ownership are included in the forecast model. The annual sales volume of the passenger vehicle market in China should exceed 60 million vehicles. At the same time, referring to the consumption concept in East Asia and the population density in China, Japan The car consumption volume is more of a reference value. Therefore, the prediction shows that 40 million vehicles may be the peak of the Chinese passenger car market.

Per capita retention is the main factor

The current household ownership rate of Japanese cars is 80.6%, while the Chinese auto market is still far below this level. According to estimates, by 2026, the number of passengers in China's passenger vehicles will exceed 250, and the number of passenger cars will reach 360 million.

First of all, from the perspective of the urban-rural dual structure, the number of passenger cars in China’s cities is four times that of the rural areas. Therefore, with the development of the rural economy and the increased willingness to purchase cars, the rural market will provide a large increment for the passenger car market. At present, auto consumption in third- and fourth-tier cities has become a new growth point, and it is also confirming the driving role of economic development in new vehicle consumption.

Second, according to the laws of Japan's development, at the end of the 1960s, the penetration rate of cars in rural areas in Japan exceeded the urban residents. Slightly different from it, the main force of China's auto consumption is still from the urban population. In 2010, the proportion of passenger cars in urban households was 92.1%, while that of rural households was only 7.9%. It is expected that by 2026, the above two ratios will be 82.8% and 17.2%, respectively.

According to the demographic data in 2016, the permanent population in urban China is 7,929,800, an increase of 21.82 million compared with the end of the previous year. The permanent population of rural residents is 58.73 million, a decrease of 13.73 million, and the proportion of urban population to the total population (urbanization rate) is 57.35%. . Forecast data show that by 2026, the proportion of urban household households in all households will reach 71.7%, nearly 10% more than in 2015. With the further development of urbanization, a large number of new urban population will provide strong support for car sales.

Group demand is affected by policy

Demand for new cars at the group level, ie, institutions, institutions, leases, leases, etc. According to the forecast of the National Information Center, the demand from government agencies, leasing and leasing industries will reach 1.51 million in 2026. Among them, by 2026, the demand of institutions and institutions will reach 59.6%, the proportion of leases will be 23.2%, and the proportion of leases will be 17.2%.

Affected by the bus reform policy, the demand for new cars from government agencies and institutions continued to decline from 906,000 vehicles in 2014 to 771,000 vehicles in 2017 (predicted value). Although the bus reform has accelerated the frequency of scrapping and updating some vehicles, it has boosted demand to a certain extent, but it is estimated that by 2026, the demand for new cars from government agencies and institutions will still be less than 1 million, or about 900,000.

In addition, the company's new car demand is mainly driven by the increase in business volume and unit operating conditions. However, the results of the survey show that from 2013 to the present, the proportion of business operations deteriorated year by year. Looking specifically at the industry, the demand for new cars in the manufacturing and wholesale and retail industries is relatively large, but the growth rate will show a negative growth; while the demand for transportation, warehousing, postal and information transmission, computer services and software industries will grow faster. However, the total demand is not large.

The leasing vehicle industry will provide a large impetus for new vehicle consumption. From 2016 to 2020, the average annual growth rate will reach 13.2%, reaching 273,000 units, and the demand will reach 350,000 units by 2026. The composition of the leasing vehicle business is mainly the long-term lease of the company, long-term rental of private cars and short-term personal rent, and there will be ample room for growth. First of all, the government bus reforms and corporate purchasing and purchasing services will increase the demand for long-term rental business from 55,000 units in 2015 to 160,000 units in 2026. Second, the lack of rental capacity and high-end rental demand will affect the company's long-term rental business. To promote the development of long-term rental service, the demand for new vehicles will change from 16,000 units in 2015 to 80,000 units in 2026. Thirdly, individual short-term rental business will be driven by self-drive tour growth and time-share leasing business. The 76,000 vehicles in the year will increase to 110,000 in 2026.

The change in the taxi market is not obvious. The main demand comes from the upgrading of existing vehicles. On the one hand, the renewal of existing vehicles will bring about 90% of new car demand. With the continuous increase in the number of taxis in previous years, the renewal volume will have a growth rate of approximately 3%; As a result, the demand for new taxis has been curbed. However, due to the trend of urbanization, the demand for new taxis will also remain at a relatively stable level.

Taken together, before 2020, the young population aged 25-34 will rise rapidly and reach the peak of population in 2020, which will promote the steady growth of new vehicle sales; after that, new vehicle consumption will slow down due to three factors. And growth stagnation. First, the number of young groups has gradually declined, and the base of consumer groups has decreased. Second, the growth rate of GDP has further slowed down, and the consumption capacity of the consumer groups has grown at a limited rate. Third, the impact of car sharing on new car consumption has become more pronounced, and consumers have changed. The use of cars has led to structural changes in the consumption of new cars.