After experiencing investment hotspots and price cuts, the mainland LED (light-emitting diode) industry is entering the era of low profit. Under the huge investment in the past few years, the scale of the industry has begun to grow, and it has also brought overcapacity. LED companies are facing fierce competition for the survival of the fittest. Many people in the industry believe that the industry will face a cold wave in the short term, and it is inevitable to shuffle.
This year's output value will reach 205.9 billion. Although the tide of price cuts has already hit, the investment in the LED industry remains undiminished. The latest report shows that at the end of 2012, the total output value of the mainland LED industry will reach RMB 205.9 billion (the same below).
According to the report, the total number of MOCVD equipment in the mainland in 2011 was 803, and in 2012 it reached 917, an increase of 114. Despite the acceleration of major equipment investment, the output value of mainland chips increased by only 20 this year, while the price of sapphire fell by 35%, and the price of LED chips fell by 32% year-on-year.
From the overall perspective of this year, the situation in the upstream sector has actually improved. This is mainly due to the increase in the proportion of investment in downstream applications in the second and third quarters, a large part of which comes from the investment of traditional lighting companies in the LED industry. . Experts said that from the perspective of the entire upstream investment, the growth rate of the investment in epitaxial wafers dropped from 46 last year to 10 this year, while the growth rate of investment in downstream applications last year was 21, and in 2012 it rose to 53, so the focus of investment in the LED industry The upstream moves downstream.
Experts predict that there will be less than 30 epitaxial chip companies left next year, and three domestic MOCVD equipment manufacturers will appear, but there will be no product sales, packaging factories will be closed down 20, downstream display screen business closure speed will be accelerated, LED downlights, shooting The penetration rate of lamps in the domestic market will exceed 30, and the sales of LED lighting industry may reach 1 billion yuan.
The price of chip packaging has dropped greatly. In the past few years, LED upstream chip investment has been huge, the price has dropped to 30 in 2010, the performance index has doubled in 2010, and the average price in the packaging field has dropped by 40 compared with 2010. Performance is also improving, but relatively slow, the price of terminal application products is also falling, the original 300 yuan product is consistent with the basic performance of the current 200 yuan LED products. Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tongfang Co., observed that technological innovation has led to a sharp drop in prices, and the downstream terminal profit margin has been declining year by year.
The huge investment in upstream chips in the past few years has led to oversupply of LED products. The oversupply of LED products is the cause of price wars, but this reason is multi-faceted. Many enterprises are expected to oversize the LED market and flock to blindly transform the LED industry. Zheng Tiemin, general manager of Shandong Inspur Huaguang Co., Ltd. said that some entrepreneurs only pay attention to immediate interests. Some enterprises do not get policy subsidies and preferential policies, and they go to the overseas market to expand production because they see the urgency of attracting foreign investment from foreign governments. .
Zheng Tiemin believes that the price war must go through a complicated process of limited production, production stoppage, special production and bankruptcy, mergers and acquisitions, integration, and the remaining enterprises will gradually move toward the normal development path. As the performance of the products is further improved, the quality is further stabilized. The price of the product will tend to be reasonable.
Advantages and Disadvantages of Government Subsidies In the past few years, under the impetus of energy conservation and emission reduction policies, local governments have vigorously supported the development of the LED industry and introduced many preferential policies for the industry. Zheng Tiemin believes that many local governments make blind decisions, make many unrealistic grand plans, and throw attractive preferential policies, including donating land, factories, etc., which attract many enterprises to invest, which is also an important factor leading to overcapacity in the industry. the reason.
In this regard, Zhu Bingzhong, deputy general manager of Qinshang Optoelectronics, has different opinions. He believes that the national government subsidy policy is a very effective means for promoting the development of emerging industries. This model is not a Chinese characteristic. Many foreign companies have received government subsidies until now.
Zhu Bingzhong believes that the government's subsidy policy, providing enterprises with research and development subsidies and R&D investment subsidies can not only promote the advancement of new technologies, but also stimulate the market, form mass production, promote the decline of raw material prices, and provide better support for the development of the LED industry. . The starting point of the government's subsidy policy for LED companies is to enable a small number of enterprises to drive the entire industry, to promote a new growth point for energy conservation and emission reduction, and to promote the LED industry to develop in a better direction. The subsidy policy itself has no problem. The key is to look at each How can enterprises grasp and use the government's subsidy policy.
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