Looking forward to the middle of the year: The trend of the paste resin market will be weaker than in the first half of the year

In the first half of this year, the domestic paste resin market showed a better trend, balance between supply and demand, and prices were relatively stable. The economic benefits of various manufacturers were steadily developed and greatly improved. It is expected that the domestic paste resin market will fluctuate in the second half of the year, and prices will not rule out steady declines.
Rising production and sales prices rose in the first quarter of paste resin prices rose steadily. In the second quarter, the price in April and May was slightly adjusted, but the mainstream ex-factory price remained at a relatively high level above 10,000 yuan (t price, the same below). At the end of June, except for the low prices of individual manufacturers, the mainstream ex-factory price of paste resin was maintained. It is 10,000 to 10,300 yuan.
In the first half of the year, the total output of paste resin in the country was 13,1990 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42%. Production and sales volume of major manufacturers: 40028 tons of Shenyang Chemicals, 39,657 tons of sales, 25,244 tons of Tianjin Chemicals, 26,421 tons of sales, 28,368 tons of Shanghai chlor-alkali (including Shanghai Tianyuan), 28,072 tons of sales, and 1,785 tons of Wuhan Xianglong. Sales of 10,121 tons; Zhangzhou Chemical Production of 14,603 tons, sales of 14,584 tons; Anhui Chlor-alkali production of 8,213 tons, sales of 8,652 tons; Xi'an Chemical production 2,749 tons, sales of 3,505 tons; other manufacturers, producing 3,000 tons, sales of 3,000 tons.
Cost support market stability The main factors that affect the paste resin market in the first half of the year are:
First, due to the sharp rise in international crude oil prices and the impact of record highs, VCM and other oil chain products remain relatively high prices, which directly affect the production of ethylene oxide chlorination paste resins at home and abroad. Constrained by rising costs, imported paste resins have significantly reduced the impact on the domestic market, which is conducive to the stability of the domestic paste resin market. Second, the inventory of major manufacturers in the first half of the year was relatively small, supporting the stability of their prices. Third, March to May is the peak season for domestic paste resin market consumption. The downstream operating rate has increased and demand has increased, which has increased the market demand for paste resins. Fourth, from the second half of last year to the first half of this year, some manufacturers have expanded production of paste resin, and the new production has been smoothly digested by the market. Fifth, the price of ordinary PVC dropped sharply, which had adverse psychological effects on the paste resin market, which to a certain extent restricted the further increase in the price of paste resin.
The market outlook is less bearish and bearish. Looking at the situation of the paste resin market in the second half of the year, the favorable factor is that international crude oil prices are likely to operate at high levels in the second half of the year. VCM and other prices will also be correspondingly firm. Imported paste resins are subject to cost constraints, and domestic paste resins The impact is still relatively limited, which is conducive to the stability of the domestic paste resin market. At the same time compared with previous years, most manufacturers have little inventory. Due to concerns about the weakening of the market in the second half of the year and the impact of the expansion of production by some manufacturers, most manufacturers have already reduced their inventories to a lower level, which will help stabilize the market in the second half of the year.
On the other hand, the unfavorable factors may be more: First, the pressure of market expansion. In late July, a major domestic manufacturer of 20,000 tons/year of paste resin expansion will be gradually put on the market. Although the expansion of production is based on gloves, it has little effect on other grades of paste resins, but the market supply is increasing and it needs to be digested in the short term. Second, due to the weakness of the ordinary PVC market this year, some manufacturers will reduce the production and sales of ordinary PVC, increase production and sales of paste resin, full-load or overload production, will make the market supply in the second half correspondingly adequate. Third, the EU's anti-dumping measures on Chinese footwear and other products may affect downstream users of the paste resin shoe leather industry, which will reduce demand. Fourth, although the market will continue to fluctuate in the second half of the year, market demand is generally weaker than in the first half of the year. Fifth, due to the sharp drop in the price of ordinary PVC in the first half of the year, at present, the market's mentality is relatively fragile and the wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong.
According to the comprehensive analysis, it is expected that the market trend of the paste resin in the second half of the year will be weaker than that of the first half of the year, and the price is likely to show a trend of steady decline.

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